The interesting astro-related blog Centauri Dreams had a post the other day discussing one of my pet topics, Fermi’s Paradox. The latest discussion and solution to be offered comes from Robin Hanson by way of Nick Bostrom, and the idea is being referred to as the “Great Filter.” This is kind of a meta concept, an idea concerning probability: we see no advanced life in the universe, so there must be some filter event that destroys/eliminates intelligent life. Here is Bostrom’s explanation:
The filter consists of one or more evolutionary transitions or steps that must be traversed at great odds in order for an Earth-like planet to produce a civilization capable of exploring distant solar systems.
So is this filter event in our relative past, or our relative future? Have we already passed through it, or is it yet to come? Bostrom believes that the Great Silence is a good thing, and means that we’re past the filter event. If we find complex life, then we should be concerned that the event is yet to come.
As a SF writer, this stuff is a gold mine. I’ve read quite a few novels and short stories that dance with the Paradox. It’s a very important question, and it really lights a match in the boiler beneath my imagination.
For instance, I was wondering this morning, while thinking about the Great Filter, if the reason behind the silence out there might somehow be a result of the fundamentals of quantum mechanics, of which I have very little understanding of, so you’ll have to forgive me if I mangle something.
It’s observational bias that I keep turning over in my mind. The idea that we change the results of an experiment just by observing them. Is it possible that once one “observer” species evolves, it’s very existence is the filter that prevents other life from evolving? Our observation changes the universe? I don’t feel like I can explain this idea. I need to read up on quantum mechanics and its implications to develop this line of thought further.
