The Globe and Mail recently ran an interesting article of predictions by Douglas Coupland. I both agree and disagree with what he has to say. Here are my thoughts on a selected number of his predictions.
1) It’s going to get worse
Well, okay. If you’re calling your article a pessimist’s guide, then you pretty much have to lead off with something like this, eh? I’m not convinced there’s any evidence that this economic cycle is any more likely to go downward than it is to trend upward. And I’m pretty pessimistic. It’s a broad statement, and thus difficult to really react to positively or negatively.
2) The future isn’t going to feel futuristic
The future never feels futuristic because it’s the present when you’re experiencing it. It takes disconnecting yourself from the daily grind and conciously thinking about the difference between today and yesterday to really evoke the sense of futuristic. If you mean it’s not a Gernsback future, well, we all figured that out some time around 1999. Your flying car is never going to happen. Time to accept that.
6) The middle class is over. It’s not coming back
This, I agree with, as things stand now. The middle class as we knew it was built on an industrial economy, one where stability was derived from repetitive, lightly skilled jobs producing products with a constant or rising demand. It’s a pre-globalist phenomenon, and as far as I can tell, one of the primary effects of globalism has been a return to global poverty. It seems through most of history, wealth has been consolidated in the hands of the few. Sometimes it seems like the middle class was just a blip that came along with the ride of various forms of democracy, and as democracy begins to falter as a result of transforming into de facto oligarchies, we’ll head back to the pre-Enlightenment systems of peasants, peons, an wealthy aristocrats. As soon as money==speech, the middle class was doomed.
Of course, none of that means we have to like it. When the former middle class finally catches on, things are going to get bloody, and I wouldn’t venture a guess. The Tea Party movement at that point will look like the voice of reason. Might be a couple of generations of declining standards of living before they’re finally shocked out of complacency.
Or one winter of food shortages—that would do the trick.
9) The suburbs are doomed, especially those E.T. , California-style suburbs
They’re not doomed. They’ll just adapt and transform. I expect that all those idiotic rules against suburban farming will get struck down out of necessity. The suburbs are the future small towns and rural areas. You may end up with wholesale abandonment in some places, but I have a feeling that they’re going to transform themselves into villages, not become pseudo-ghost towns.
17) You may well burn out on the effort of being an individual
I agree that we’re headed back to communities that are more interconnected. But my generation isn’t going to burn out on individuality. For much of us, “being our individual selves” is a fundamental cornerstone of our self-identity. maybe we’ll raise our kids to be more community-minded though. But in 10 years? Not remotely likely to me.
20) North America can easily fragment quickly as did the Eastern Bloc in 1989
I go back and forth on this notion. I think it will very much depend, at least in the United States, on the executive branch at the time. We’ve kinda been through this already, and we fought the most bloody war in our nation’s history to keep fragmentation from happening. I’m going to have to say “no way” on this happening in 10 years in the U.S. In Mexico, though, that’s another story.
22) Your sense of time will continue to shred. Years will feel like hours
I’m just making a wild guess here, but is Douglas Copland going through a midlife crisis?
28) It will become harder to view your life as “a story”
Narrative structure didn’t invent itself, you know. We’ve been structuring our experiences as story since we could paint on cave walls, or even before. The idea that our life will instead be however many friends we have online, I just don’t buy it. It sounds like something Facebook would pitch to venture capitalists, not a real futurist prediction. Yes, your social network will be important. But we’ll define our sense of self by it? Is there going to be a fundamental alteration of our brain chemistry at the same time?
32) Musical appreciation will shed all age barriers
This may be the most interesting prediction I’ve read. I think it says something about the generation of new modes of music—what is the next rock n’ roll? Is it rap? Okay, then what’s coming after that? The death of a musical mainstream culture caused by a fragmentation of taste means generations to come will have a harder time self-identifying with a specific genre. They’ll like bands composed of individuals their own age, but as far as age being linked to types of music? I can buy this totally.
34) You’re going to miss the 1990s more than you ever thought
I don’t know, I already miss them pretty badly. Then again, I was in high school and college, and who doesn’t miss those years of their lives to some extent? A time of less responsibility always looks good from real adulthood.
37) People will stop caring how they appear to others
The number of tribal categories one can belong to will become infinite. To use a high-school analogy, 40 years ago you had jocks and nerds. Nowadays, there are Goths, emos, punks, metal-heads, geeks and so forth.
Two social group/tribes 40 years ago? It’s not quite 40 years ago, but let me quote to you from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off:
Oh, he’s very popular Ed. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads — they all adore him. They think he’s a righteous dude.
Are you telling me in 1970, there weren’t hippies or greasers? Stoners or preps?
The number of tribal categories have always neigh-infinite. It seems that we just care more now than we used to. With other forms of identity, we put more weight on this one.
41) The future of politics is the careful and effective implanting into the minds of voters images that can never be removed
Yeah, we all saw Inception this summer too.
45) We will accept the obvious truth that we brought this upon ourselves
I thought this was supposed to be a pessimist’s guide? That’s the most optimistic prediction about a fundamental change in human nature I’ve read yet!
So what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with any of his 45 predictions?

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