The interesting astro-related blog Centauri Dreams had a post the other day discussing one of my pet topics, Fermi’s Paradox. The latest discussion and solution to be offered comes from Robin Hanson by way of Nick Bostrom, and the idea is being referred to as the “Great Filter.” This is kind of a meta concept, an idea concerning probability: we see no advanced life in the universe, so there must be some filter event that destroys/eliminates intelligent life. Here is Bostrom’s explanation:
The filter consists of one or more evolutionary transitions or steps that must be traversed at great odds in order for an Earth-like planet to produce a civilization capable of exploring distant solar systems.
So is this filter event in our relative past, or our relative future? Have we already passed through it, or is it yet to come? Bostrom believes that the Great Silence is a good thing, and means that we’re past the filter event. If we find complex life, then we should be concerned that the event is yet to come.
As a SF writer, this stuff is a gold mine. I’ve read quite a few novels and short stories that dance with the Paradox. It’s a very important question, and it really lights a match in the boiler beneath my imagination.
For instance, I was wondering this morning, while thinking about the Great Filter, if the reason behind the silence out there might somehow be a result of the fundamentals of quantum mechanics, of which I have very little understanding of, so you’ll have to forgive me if I mangle something.
It’s observational bias that I keep turning over in my mind. The idea that we change the results of an experiment just by observing them. Is it possible that once one “observer” species evolves, it’s very existence is the filter that prevents other life from evolving? Our observation changes the universe? I don’t feel like I can explain this idea. I need to read up on quantum mechanics and its implications to develop this line of thought further.
I had my second model shoot tonight. Over the past three days, we sorted out costuming, a shoot location, and actually did the shoot. The model, Michelle, was fantastic to work with, and I look forward to working with her in future projects. I am planning to make her character in the Roundbottom storylines a somewhat important one, so I suspect we’ll be shooting again soon. The other all-star hero of this shoot was Sarah, who is pretty much responsible for the costuming here. She’s a genius a putting this stuff together quickly. I think we’re going to do some shoots of her characters, Miss Watkins, very soon. Miss Watkins will also be narrating a field recordings podcast as part of the Roundbottom project. Right I’m just building my inventory of photos and written pieces and podcasts ideas up unti I have 3 months of constant work to be released on a weekly basis.
Note that this is not a complete Roundbottom image and in fact isn’t very close to the way I do the sepia on those other images. This is a quick and dirty look, just to get a feel on which images I want to develop further in Photoshop. The real Roundbottom images are going to take some time. I was looking, and out of a little over 90 shots, I flagged 45 as picks. That’s an unbelievable ratio of good shots. I have some serious culling to do…
Continuing on the thoughts of yesterday’s post, I’ve recently read Clay Shirky’s speech, “Gin, Television, and Social Surplus.” You can read a transcript of it, or watch a video. I highly recommend checking out one or the other and coming back here. I’ll wait. For the lazy, here’’s a choice bit that explains much of it:
If I had to pick the critical technology for the 20th century, the bit of social lubricant without which the wheels would’ve come off the whole enterprise, I’d say it was the sitcom. Starting with the Second World War a whole series of things happened–rising GDP per capita, rising educational attainment, rising life expectancy and, critically, a rising number of people who were working five-day work weeks. For the first time, society forced onto an enormous number of its citizens the requirement to manage something they had never had to manage before–free time.
And what did we do with that free time? Well, mostly we spent it watching TV.
…
And this is the other thing about the size of the cognitive surplus we’re talking about. It’s so large that even a small change could have huge ramifications. Let’s say that everything stays 99 percent the same, that people watch 99 percent as much television as they used to, but 1 percent of that is carved out for producing and for sharing. The Internet-connected population watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. That’s about five times the size of the annual U.S. consumption. One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of participation.
Pretty cool, huh? I think Clay is describing the underlying force behind the New York Times article from yesterday. The cognitive surplus is leading to many people using the time formerly soaked up by the one-way media to create things themselves, and to share them. Which causes a glut in the choices for actually consuming, and results in the paradox of choice. Making things collaboratively like Wikipedia makes us happy, but having all those other options makes us unhappy. Another paradox, of sorts.
Wikipedia is a bit of a different from, say, writing fan fiction, because Wikipedia has a core usefulness that is more broad in appeal. You could say that Wikipedia provides a clear benefit to society, whereas the benefit to society of more fiction, or more music, or more photography is less readily apparent. I’m not saying that your X-Files/Evil Dead crossover fanfic doesn’t provide a benefit. I just think it’s harder to make the case for it. I’m not going to do it for you, anyway.
The real mind blower here for me is this idea of thinking about the cognitive surplus–not thinking about it as leisure time, but thinking about it as hours spent thinking. That surplus has always existed, but something about the Internet has provided an entirely new means of tapping into it. Sure, some have chosen to express their surplus by launching flame wars over which Doctor was the best (clearly the 7th), but I think Shirky is right in pointing out that this is all embryonic still. We’re going to see some amazing things soon. What forms will they take? My thinking along these lines before was limited to the idea of crowdsourcing, but I’m starting to see that it’s so much more than that. I really need to read Shirky’s book, Here Comes Everybody.
What problems can we solve using the internet and our cognitive surplus?
This is not a full frame–it’s a bit of a crop, as I’m still shooting with my 45-150mm. The 70-300mm shipped today and should arrive on Wednesday. I’m going to rush straight from work and out to the ponds, so long as the storms that the forecast calls for do not materialize. I love a good storm, but not on the day I finally get my wildlife photography lens!
Hi! My name is Jeremiah Tolbert, but you can call me Jeremy. I am a fantasy and science fiction writer, photographer, and web designer living in Northern Colorado. By day, I work as a designer for a background screening firm. I am currently available for freelance design work. Drop me a line if you have any questions or comments. I love hearing from new people.
Does the New York Times article on Steampunk mean the genre/fashion craze has made the high water mark and will begin to recede from here? What is the shelf-life of an aesthetic movement, and for that matter, what is the sociological force behind this particular movement?
It’s a Stylistic Rebellion
Particularly as an aesthetic [...]
This was my first serious shoot with logistics involving a model, costuming, and a shoot location. To spend an hour and a half behind the camera, I spent probably 4 hours doing the various administrative tasks to set up. Here’s an overview of the process we went through to get the pictures I wanted.
The [...]
Continuing on the thoughts of yesterday’s post, I’ve recently read Clay Shirky’s speech, “Gin, Television, and Social Surplus.” You can read a transcript of it, or watch a video. I highly recommend checking out one or the other and coming back here. I’ll wait. For the lazy, here’’s a choice bit [...]
My goal with this new site is to not only to design a very clean, beautiful site, but to also showcase some of the nice effects that are possible with javascript libraries like jQuery (and teach myself how to effectively use them in the process). Last night, I worked for over 6 hours simply [...]
Sci-fi rant: Why giant mecha robots are stupid | Geekend | TechRepublic.com
Jay Garmon has written a very well thought-out article on why giant mecha robots are stupid and will never work. I am afraid I must provide a counter to this article. Giant mecha robots are also totally awesome, and I think he’s wrong. [...]
Pretty cool, huh? I think Clay is describing the underlying force behind 
